WTC 2025: Will penalizing England and Australia help India and Pakistan in WTC cycle?

The Apex Cricket Council’s decision to penalise England and Australia for slow over-rates during Ashes 2023 has significant implications for the ongoing World Test Championship cycle which is also benefiting India and Pakistan. Australia and England are facing penalties and have a challenging path to qualifying for the WTC finals.

India’s current position at No. 2 with a 66.67% points percentage and Pakistan’s lead with a perfect 100% points percentage put both teams in a favourable position to secure their spots in the final. This sets the stage for a potentially historic first-ever World Test Championship final between the arch-rivals, India and Pakistan. England failed to achieve the target overs in four out of five games, while Australia fell short by ten overs at Old Trafford.

This resulted in England earning just nine World Test Championship (WTC) points despite winning two games, while Australia secured 18 points after accounting for penalties. Consequently, Australia found itself in the third position on the WTC table with 30 percentage points, trailing behind Pakistan (100) and India (66.67%). England, with 15 points and a 16.67% percentage, stood at No. 5, below the West Indies.

How will England and Australia qualify for the WTC in 2025?

Notably, both teams also faced deductions in match fees, with Australia receiving a 50% penalty for the Old Trafford Test. While England faced fines of 10%, 45%, 15%, and 25% for the four Tests in which they fell short, respectively. This decision from the Apex Cricket Council has sparked a buzz on social media, with fans and some cricketers finding it unfair, especially considering the interruption caused by rain during the fourth Test match.

Now, Australia and England have a more challenging path to qualifying for the WTC finals due to the penalties. India secured their spot in the final by finishing second on the 2021–23 WTC table with a 58.8% winning percentage of the points they contested. Looking ahead to the 2025 final, a rough target of a 60% qualification rate is considered.

To reach this mark, England would require 151 more points from their remaining 16 Tests, which translates to approximately 11 wins and three draws, or simply 12 wins, avoiding any further points penalties. Meanwhile, Australia needs 137 points from their remaining 14 Tests to achieve the approximate 60% qualification rate. This could be accomplished with 10 wins, nine wins and three draws, or even eight wins and six draws. However, England’s qualification for the WTC finals has become increasingly challenging given these circumstances. This also increased India and Pakistan’s chances to qualify for the finals considering their games left.